Accelerate: Fleet sales stabilize and electrification accelerates

August 29, 2024

According to Bobit Research fleet sales are gradually stabilizing in 2024 after the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Commercial fleet sales are slightly down compared to 2023, following strong recovery efforts in 2023 driven by high demand for trucks and vans. The rental fleet market, although recovering from its pandemic-induced slump, remains significantly below 2019 levels. Meanwhile, government fleet sales have returned to more typical patterns after a delayed recovery. Overall, 2024 fleet sales are expected to align closely with 2023 but remain 22% lower than in 2019.

South Pasadena Police Department has made history by becoming America’s 1st law enforcement agency to replace all gasoline-powered vehicles with EVs. Enterprise Fleet Management helped acquire 10 Tesla Model Y and 10 Tesla Model 3s for the police force’s new EV fleet. New EV charging infrastructure has also been installed at South Pasadena City Hall. The final part of this electrification project is the ongoing installation of solar-powered backup systems for essential city buildings. This shift to electrification is expected to save c$4,000 per vehicle annually on energy costs and additional savings on maintenance.

Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, has stated he believes it is time to start cutting interest rates, in September. This stems from his stance that the upside risks to inflation have diminished, and in recent weeks the downside risks to employment have increased. The current interest rate is 5.25-5.5% and the market is anticipating a 0.25% cut when the Federal Open Market Committee next meets in September. If the Committee does cut rates in September, it will come at an interesting time as the US Presidential election will be 6 weeks. This has led to some economic commentators suggesting the rate cut should come after the election. However, the automotive sector reacted positively to Mr Powell’s statement and market sentiment as lower interest rates mean reduced financing costs which stimulates investment and growth.

Mullen Automotive has unveiled a new leasing program, the bizEV, for its Mullen ONE, a Class 1 EV cargo van. The lease option offers a 3-year term starting at $475 per month (plus applicable taxes and fees) and it includes scheduled vehicle maintenance. Mullen’s lease program is tailored to help small(er) companies transition to EVs with minimal upfront costs and manageable monthly payments. This initiative reflects Mullen's commitment to supporting businesses in reducing their carbon footprint while benefiting from the operational efficiency of electric vehicles.

Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health has published the results of a study that investigated the climate and health benefits of converting school bus fleets to electric vehicles. One of the key findings was that replacing an average diesel school bus in 2017 with an electric one would yield $84,200 in total benefits per individual bus. This includes $40,400 worth of climate benefits from the elimination of 181 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions and $43,800 in health savings from less air pollution and reduced rates of mortality and childhood asthma. This study highlights the material climate and health benefits of transitioning to an electric bus fleet. The American government has been proactive in helping with this transition as in 2023, the EPA, distributed c$1.5bn to electrify 3,000 school buses.

The Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) has awarded $156m to transit agencies to improve, upgrade and expand its bus services for people to get to jobs, school and other important destinations. More than $123m in funding was approved by the Texas Transportation Commission and TxDOT also won a federal grant of $26.8m from the Federal Transit Administration. The funding will be used by transit agencies across the state to support a range of projects that will focus on New Facilities and FleetIntercity Connections and New Services.

Geotab has released data, insights and trends in EV charging by studying fleets in America, Canada and the EU. According to data, more than 50% of EVs in North American and European fleets only ever charge at 1-2 locations. This implies that these EVs have predictable routes and suggests they can charge onsite at the fleet’s facility or the driver’s home. Interestingly, AC charging accounted for 90% of charging for light-duty charging sessions in North America. Whereas European data showed EVs using DC charging almost twice as much as North American vehicles, however, it still only accounted for 20% of their total charge sessions.

Autonomy, an EV subscription company, has announced it is launching a new SaaS business line called Autonomy Data Services (ADS) in partnership with Deloitte. This strategic move includes securing funding of $2.5m, a $32 million debt-for-equity swap, and acquiring all subscription-related technology and IP. This new SaaS business is a significant pivot for Autonomy and underlines its focus on technology and subscriptions. The ADS business model has no RV risk which should cater to OEMs, fleet operators, rental car companies, and car dealerships seeking to implement subscription offerings.